Alright, I think I found the problem and put it to bed. I hope at least...
Starting off, It felt like the new bearing had more play in it than the original one that I had the shop replace in the first place. Not off to a great start.
Clear signs of leaks still, fresh oil. Glad to see that the new puddles are at least from the same source and not a new one.
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I disassembled it and started trying to figure out if its the OD or the ID of the seal that leaked.
The axle shaft was dry for the most part. Hard to say, but looked like residue and not fresh oil.
You can see it was assembled correctly.
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The backing plate looks like it had a substantial amount of oil on both sides, moreso than the shaft by a long shot. The sealing surface of the shaft is clean, no nicks or grooves, nice and smooth. The lips of the seal were in good condition this time. This seal also leaked substantially less.
I was curious as to why this would have leaked. Looking closer at the silicone smeared around the seal, I noticed that the sealing ridge seemed to be at the very edge of the silicone that got wiped off as the seal was inserted. Taking a close look at it, it appears that the sealing ridge around the perimeter of the seal never actually reaches the bore. It sits in the bottom of the chamfer on the axle tube, but not compressed into the bore. I believe this is the source of the leak, as everything else seems fine seal wise.
The bearing was for sure a cheap bearing, with less than 400 miles on it, its looking unhappy. Evidence of debris in it and early stages of spalling. Highly unlikely it would have survived more than 10,000 miles.
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So with everything removed, I opened up the new parts
@mrblaine sent over, and he saved my bacon by sending 2 sets of seals. One set was Timken, and the other was Spicer. The Timken seals for whatever reason were and extremely loose fit. Easily slipped into the bore with no friction. These would have been the same as the ones I ordered elsewhere. The Spicer seals were a nice fit though, and comparing the location of the sealing ridge on those, the ridge was inboard .030" more than the seal I removed, so it will engage the bore. So I chose the Spicer to install.
I went ahead a and pressed it all together. Luckily I was able to finish my other project enough to have it drivable, and so I used it to shuttle the axle and parts the 30 miles to the machine shop. Normally I'd just do the work there, but since the incident the space it limited. They had gotten the press working again a couple weeks ago.
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I pressed the retaining collar on next, no picture of that. Reassembly went without a hitch, I also applied a thin bead of silicone around the seal before installation. I cleaned the goo out of the rim as well, there was around 1/8" of gunk in it.
We'll see how it holds up. The rear brake pads are also contaminated with oil. I cleaned those up the best I could and have new pads to replace them that Mrblaine also sent, however the rotors are garbage and need replaced. I'll verify this doesn't leak, replace the bearing on the other wheel, replace the sagged springs and shocks on all 4 corners and replace the rotors and pads in the rear while I do that. That will be next weekends project. This weekend we're taking the Jeep out on a trip with my friend in his Samurai.
Thanks again MrBlaine, and I'll report back here if it starts leaking.